Real estate rebound faces new risk as shutdown looms

After disruptions that led to a below-average spring market, a late-summer uptick in home sales has been welcome news for realtors and homeowners. But there is concern that a government shutdown could once again slow things down.

Despite all this, and interest rates hovering near 6%, Burr said that coming out of the summer, people have begun to buy and sell homes. But he’s worried the shutdown could make this recovery short-lived.

“The main thing is that the shutdown is going to affect buyer confidence in the future,” said Corey Burr, senior vice president at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty.

Burr said the real estate market in the region is heavily influenced by what happens on Capitol Hill and changes in federal employment.

“Our spring market was interrupted by Liberation Day in early April, and what is typically the hottest time of our market, year in and year out, became dead for about a six-week period,” Burr said.

“Liberation Day” is a phrase President Donald Trump has used to describe April 2, the day a set of import tariffs was rolled out.

Buyer confidence also took a hit from the DOGE cuts, which Burr said had a “serious psychological effect” on buyers.

“It really just put our market into a frozen mode. Buyers got very nervous,” he said.

Burr pointed to Silver Spring, Maryland, as a bellwether for the region. He said the area has seen a longer time on the market for moderately-priced homes, which he believes is partly due to federal layoffs.

He also expressed concern about the possibility of additional layoffs, noting that federal agencies have been instructed to prepare for staff reductions as part of the shutdown response.

“The specter of even more layoffs is going to affect the region adversely,” Burr said.

He said what’s needed now is what he calls a “Goldilocks economy,” with inflation down to 2%, moderate job growth, and mortgage rates in the mid-5% range. That, he said, would give the Federal Reserve the flexibility to lower interest rates further.

“If we can achieve a Goldilocks economy, I think that the rate on the 30-year fixed is going to come down more into the mid-fives, and that has proven to be a number where existing homeowners are willing to trade in their low interest rate that they’ve had for the last several years in order to right-size their housing to where they are in their lives,” Burr said.

But for now, Burr said the full impact of the shutdown and the end of government payments for federal employees affected by the DOGE cuts remains to be seen.

“It would be very hard to take if this recent surge in activity gets interrupted by a lengthy shutdown by the government,” Burr said.

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