Consumers Buy More Real Estate as Interest Rates Climb

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) – Rising prices, increased transactions, and bolder buyers: Germany’s real estate market is regaining momentum. However, higher mortgage rates are weighing on buyers. Experts anticipate that the four percent mark could soon be reached.

The Hamburg-based Gewos Institute for Urban, Regional, and Housing Research expects a significant increase in purchases of apartments, single-family homes, and building land in 2025. “The reluctance to buy in the German real estate market is gradually dissolving, with private buyers in particular returning to the market,” writes Gewos real estate expert Sebastian Wunsch.

“Growing Confidence Among Buyers”

Specifically, the institute expects the number of residential property purchases to rise to around 656,000 this year–a jump of more than 14 percent compared to 2024. This is according to a study made available to the German Press Agency, based on an analysis of completed sales contracts.

Turnover from single-family homes, condominiums, multi-family buildings, and residential land is projected to climb by 18 percent to around €221 billion, up from approximately €188 billion last year. This shows the real estate market continuing its recovery from the setback that began in 2022, when sharply rising interest rates ended the boom and caused prices to fall.

Wunsch notes that potential buyers are increasingly confident in their ability to finance a property. Additionally, some people are turning to homeownership due to high rental prices.

At least for single-family homes and existing condominiums, the pre-crisis level of 2021 is expected to be surpassed, according to the forecast. The first half of the year was strong, leading to expectations of a roughly 13 percent increase in purchases for 2025. However, purchases of building land and new-build apartments remain more than 40 percent below pre-crisis levels.

Four Percent Mortgage Rates on the Horizon?

However, buyers will generally have to cope with rising loan interest rates. According to FMH Financial Consulting, ten-year property loans recently carried an annual rate of about 3.7 percent. Twelve months ago, the rate was just 3.3 percent.

FMH founder Max Herbst considers a rise to 4 percent by the end of the year possible. He points out that mortgage rates are not tied to the European Central Bank’s lower key interest rates, but rather to the yield on ten-year German government bonds. These could rise further due to economic stagnation and increasing government debt: “It depends on whether investors believe Germany can achieve an economic turnaround, trust the Federal Republic as a debtor, or demand higher risk premiums.”

Prices Still Subdued

Since buyers often finance large sums with loans, even small interest rate increases can become costly. However, Herbst does not believe the real estate market’s recovery will end abruptly. “In 2022, mortgage rates rose from one to 3.3 percent in just half a year.” Such a rapid increase is not occurring now.

Potential buyers also have more options again and are benefiting from slightly lower prices, according to Gewos expert Wunsch. The current price level for existing apartments is still 6 percent below the record set during the last real estate boom, while single-family homes are 7 percent below that peak.