Commercial Real Estate Market Shows Signs Of Recovery As Bid Intensity Increases

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Economic uncertainty led to a slowdown in the commercial real estate market earlier this year, but one indicator has finally ticked up. This suggests signs that capital is returning to the commercial real estate market, which may be a positive sign for investors. Although there is still uncertainty, investors may have reason to be optimistic going forward.

In July, real estate firm JLL’s Bid Intensity Index ticked up for the first time this year. The global Bid Intensity Index is a proprietary indicator that tracks competitiveness in the direct investment market. It combines three sub-indices — bid-ask spread, bids per deal and bid variability — derived from bid data.

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By combining bid data from multiple sub-indices, the Bid Intensity Index aims to provide forward-looking insights into the momentum and liquidity of capital markets.  The index provides insights into the market’s competitiveness before transaction volumes confirm the trends, JLL says

The Bid Intensity Index in July saw its first improvement since December. The firm says this indicates market-wide investment sales bidding activity is getting competitive again after a period of uncertainty.

At the beginning of 2025, the index eased due to more volatile bond markets, which affected underwriting. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding trade policy further softened the index. After months of uncertainty, the index is finally stabilizing, indicating an increase in market competitiveness.

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JLL provided a sector-by-sector breakdown in its report, illustrating how market dynamics impact various property types. The breakdown includes:

• Retail: Bid intensity has improved since 2024, driven by strong competitiveness across most markets. Supply and demand are in balance, and consumer spending is strong.