How will the government shutdown impact mortgage rates?

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The overall impact on real estate is expected to be minimal at first. But economists say a lengthy shutdown would hinder the already sluggish market.

Key points:

  • The economic impact of the federal government shutdown has begun, with hundreds of thousands of federal workers expected to be furloughed.
  • Mortgage rates are stable for now, but they could become volatile as credit concerns and a lack of economic data start weighing on investors.
  • Authorization for the National Flood Insurance Program has lapsed, which housing experts say will hurt both new homeowners in flood-prone areas and those with expiring policies.

Now that the anticipated federal government shutdown is underway, the question becomes whether it will last long enough to further stall an already plodding housing market.

The first few days of a shutdown typically have little impact on homebuying and selling. In the case of this shutdown — the first since the record-setting 35-day shutdown ended in January 2019 — the drag on the economy would increase the longer that an estimated 750,000 furloughed federal employees, along with those still required to work, don’t get paid.

During previous shutdowns, politicians have often targeted the first military pay date as a reopening deadline, according to Chen Zhao, who leads Redfin’s economics research team. For the current shutdown, that would be Oct. 15.

“The immediate impact of a short, run-of-the-mill shutdown to both the housing market and financial markets would be minimal,” Zhao said. “But the ultimate impact depends on the length of the shutdown and which federal workers remain on the job.”

What will this mean for mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates could become volatile in the event of a lengthy shutdown. Rates typically drop over concerns that the economy is weakening before rising again once a shutdown ends.

However, rates could also increase if investors grow concerned about the credit quality of U.S. debt, said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage.

For now, it’s “business as usual,” Cohn said, “but with delays on loans impacted by the shutdown, we’ll need to see what happens.”

The availability of government data could also impact mortgage rates. A key jobs report scheduled to be released on Oct. 3 will likely be delayed, along with other reports that the Federal Reserve uses to shape its monetary policy decisions. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for Oct. 28-29.

The current government shutdown had little initial impact on 30-year mortgage rates, with Mortgage News Daily pegging the rate at 6.37% on Oct. 1 — unchanged from one day earlier and around the same level as the few days prior.

The flood insurance problem

The National Association of Realtors has raised concerns about the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the country’s largest flood insurance provider. The shutdown has led to a lapse in authorization, which could pose a problem in areas where flood insurance is required to complete a home sale.

Americans are currently unable to purchase new policies due to the shutdown, while current policyholders are unable to renew coverage.

NAR data indicates that the NFIP “is essential to 1,360 home sale closings daily, translating to approximately 41,300 affected monthly transactions nationwide.” Real estate transactions in flood-prone areas are expected to move forward without flood insurance, but this could become harmful to homeowners who have to deal with flooding during the peak hurricane season.

“Without access to flood insurance, American families must rely on federal disaster aid, which is severely limited,” NAR President Kevin Sears said in a Sept. 26 letter to congressional leaders.

Impact on the DC housing market

Given its concentration of federal employees, the housing market in Washington, D.C., is more exposed than other areas during a government shutdown. The region’s market had already weakened amid other government initiatives earlier this year, including Department of Government Efficiency layoffs, budget cuts and return-to-office mandates.

But those earlier changes haven’t translated to a major downturn in terms of price, according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. A lengthy shutdown might be the market’s tipping point.

“Although it is difficult to predict the extent of the impact, a prolonged government shutdown, or a shutdown that results in permanent workforce cuts, would lead to a slowdown in housing market activity and likely to year-over-year declines in home prices,” Sturtevant said, adding that the local market will likely rebound in the long term.

Rocket gains massive market share after closing on Mr. Cooper

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Rocket Mortgage and Mr Cooper logos with houses Rocket Mortgage and Mr Cooper logos with houses
Illustration by Real Estate News/Shutterstock

On Oct. 1, Rocket Companies completed its $14.2B acquisition of mortgage rival Mr. Cooper, calling it “the largest independent mortgage deal in history.”

Rocket Companies announced today that it has formally closed on its $14.2 billion acquisition of Mr. Cooper, forming a mortgage giant that services nearly 10 million homeowners, the company said. 

Broad market share: In acquiring its leading rival through “the largest independent mortgage deal in history,” the company said it’s now the country’s largest home loan originator and the largest mortgage servicer. The combined company’s scale and volume reaches a broad swath of American homebuyers, representing one in every six mortgages in the country, Rocket noted in a previous statement.

Going forward, the company is retiring the Mr. Cooper branding and folding all operations and services under the Rocket name. 

Rocket Mortgage’s new leader: Longtime Mr. Cooper CEO Jay Bray will now take on the role of president and CEO of Rocket Mortgage. He will report directly to Rocket Companies CEO Varun Krishna and is also joining Rocket’s board of directors, the company said.

Bray led Mr. Cooper for 25 years, “during which Mr. Cooper grew to become the nation’s largest servicer and produced enormous value for our clients, partners, stakeholders and investors,” he said. By combining operations, Bray added, “we will deliver the change the housing industry needs.”

Aiming to deliver the American Dream: Krishna has emphasized that the acquisition is about more than just scale — it’s about improving the homebuying and homeownership process for consumers. 

At a recent NAHREP conference, Krishna spoke of the “adversarial dynamic in the homeownership industry” and its negative consequences for consumers.

Rocket is “all about building community partnerships, acquisitions,” he said. “I think we are greater together than we are apart. It’s a huge market; there’s plenty of share, there’s plenty of opportunity.”

In today’s announcement, Krishna added: “Homeownership is the bedrock of the American Dream. By combining mortgage servicing and loan origination, along with home search through Redfin, we are paving the path for Americans to own the dream.” 

Rocket’s upward trajectory: The Mr. Cooper deal wasn’t Rocket’s only major M&A this year. A few weeks before publicizing that acquisition, the company announced its plan to buy Redfin, formally closing on the deal on July 1. During Rocket’s July 31 quarterly earnings call, Krishna told investors that Redfin had already been funneling customers to Rocket. 

“Redfin gives Rocket a new foothold in purchase and takes our presence in local markets to another level,” Krishna said during the call. “Relationships with 50 million consumers every month reflect a deep connection with demand right at the top of the funnel, and creates new purchase opportunities from both directions: from Redfin to Rocket and Rocket to Redfin.”

Now with home search, lending and brokerage capabilities, Rocket is an even larger force in residential real estate. Rocket’s share price was around $20 on Oct. 1 after the news of its closing on Mr. Cooper, up roughly 85% year-to-date but up just 4.5% from the same period a year ago.

DOGE cuts show how smaller government can harm economy

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As the U.S. begins its first federal government shutdown since 2018, with uncertain repercussions for the economy, the ghost of Elon Musk continues to rattle real estate markets across the U.S.

Even though Musk left the government months ago, his legacy remains with DOGE. One of the ways in which DOGE has sought to cut government expenses has been to cancel leases of hundreds of offices across the country. While the DOGE website lists how much has been saved from each cancelled lease — in all, 384 cancelled leases at an estimated savings of roughly $140 million — experts say the savings come at a broader economic cost.

Cameron LaPoint, assistant professor of finance in the Yale School of Management, has studied the impact of DOGE closures on the commercial real estate market. LaPoint points out that the government, as a tenant, used to be a very safe bet. Because of that, their leases often included cancellation clauses that rarely were invoked — it was a goodwill gesture from the landlord that cost them little. Until now.

“If you and I are renting an apartment and cancel the lease, there is a penalty of several months’ rent,” LaPoint said. But when the government cancels a lease, the landlords are left high and dry. That is happening in cities large and small, rural and red, urban and blue. “A lot of private landlords are renting space out to government agencies, and they were counting on these agencies being in their space paying rent for five years. Now landlords have to find new tenants,” LaPoint added.

The savings DOGE touts, according to LaPoint, are largely based on the assumption that the government would have renewed the leases when they expired, but the DOGE numbers aren’t factoring in that some leases naturally wouldn’t be renewed due to normal government downsizing or relocations.

It may not seem like a few hundred lease cancellations could send a jolt through the country’s financial system, but lease cancellations do have a ripple effect. “The multiplication effects can be tied to thousands of loans across the country the way the commercial debt market works,” LaPoint said.

Government leases provide stable, predictable income that makes them attractive to lenders. When these “anchor tenants” disappear, it doesn’t just affect the buildings — it can destabilize the broader commercial lending market because banks package these property loans together into investment securities. That means problems with government-leased properties can spread risk across thousands of other loans nationwide.

A spokeswoman for the General Services Administration, which manages federal assets, said it has achieved notable results in a short time as it optimizes the federal portfolio, and estimated the savings to American taxpayers at $113 million.

When Feds Leave, so does financing linchpin, and confidence

“I’m seeing the effects of cancelled federal leases developing into a chain reaction in a number of markets,” said Alexi Morgado, realtor and CEO of Lexawise, based in Florida. “The availability of supply does not always lead to immediate demand, putting strain on operating income and building values, which can complicate financing.”

Of the 384 leases currently listed on the DOGE website for cancellation, the top three agency tenants are the Social Security Administration (23 leases cancelled), the Small Business Administration (22 leases cancelled), and the Geological Survey (22 leases cancelled).

The largest office to be axed by DOGE, according to LaPoint’s research, was a behemoth 845,000-square-foot office in D.C., with the smallest being a 250-square-foot Secret Service office in New York City.

The impact can be uneven by geography.

“In Florida, while the markets remain strong, we are seeing areas where reduction of public office space has placed additional pressure on landlords to reposition in the market and find other uses for space,” said Morgado, adding that some repositioning could include transforming empty office space into residential or mixed-use developments. “For agents like myself, it creates potential opportunities, but it is also going to require creativity and a far more strategic approach to repositioning space that could previously withstand whatever may come,” he said.

Mark Besharaty, senior vice president of commercial lending at California-based Arbor Financial Group, agrees that landlords of now-vacant government office space will need to get creative.

“To mitigate what I see happening in most cases, the owners of these properties will have to reconfigure the properties to fit a different kind of tenant base,” Besharaty said. Mitigation measures include subdividing larger government offices into smaller, more manageable parcels so other businesses can move in.

In the meantime, the closures will continue to ripple through the complex ecosystem that is the U.S. mortgage market.

“A lot of these larger properties where the owner has a loan is through a banking institution or CMBS [commercial mortgage backed securities], and they securitize the loans into an asset pool and sell them off,” Besharaty said.

When the property is empty, there could be a detrimental impact to the whole asset pool, which could cause the interest rates to be higher. “This is a national-scale issue, it’s not just D.C., it’s throughout the country,” he said.

Rural America may take a big hit

Rural properties with cancelled government leases face more acute risk because they typically aren’t included in those bundled loan packages, but that also means they have less financial cushioning when major tenants leave. Rural, less populated counties could also be at heightened risk of federal lease cancellations going forward.

LaPoint noted that among federal leases that are potentially on the chopping block because they are past their early termination eligibility date, 57% are located outside the 10 most populated states and outside of Washington, D.C. He also says that leases outside the biggest 100 counties are 63% of all leases currently eligible for termination, and represent 61% of the offices that have already received a letter from DOGE.

In the rural Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Michelle Hanley, mayor of Marquette, Michigan, says the IRS facility closure in her city will cause minimal pain because there has not been in-person service there since Covid.

“The bigger issue in the UP is the cuts made to the Bureau of Indian Affairs office in Baraga and the tribal health [center] in Sault Ste. Marie,” Hanley said. Indigenous people make up five times more of the area’s population density than in the lower peninsula and the mayor said the cuts would “hit hard.”

Tom Whalen, professor and department chair of business administration at Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, says the whole issue of lease cancellation costs is nuanced.

“You could say it harkens back to John Maynard Keynes and his idea that the government can stimulate the economy through spending. Similarly, when the government withdraws funds from the economy, economic activity will contract,” Whalen said, and he added that there is a multiplier effect.

The Trump administration has threatened that more federal workers could be fired as a consequence of a shutdown. Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought told House Republicans during a conference call after the shutdown began that the Trump administration will carry out reductions in force among federal workers in one or two days, according to a person familiar with the matter. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed during the briefing that she expected layoffs to begin “very soon,” possibly within “two days.”

Prediction markets are currently betting that the shutdown lasts two weeks.

“In the case of cutting leases, you have less money going to landlords and you have those organizations closing their locations. Thus, fewer people working in those locations. With lower rental income and the loss of jobs, there is lower economic stimulus,” Whalen said. “This has a ripple effect across the local economy.”

California Housing Market Forecast 2026: Will it Crash or Recover?

Will it Crash or Recover?

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The California housing market in 2026 is shaping up to be a year of modest growth and slightly improved affordability. While we won’t see the rapid surges of years past, expect a gentle uptick in home sales and a record-breaking median price that hints at a market finding its footing after more challenging times.

I’ve seen cycles come and go. It’s always tempting to focus on the dramatic swings, but sometimes the most insightful observations come from understanding the subtle shifts. The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) latest forecast for 2026 offers a glimpse into a market that’s stabilizing, and for many, that stability is actually good news.

California Housing Market Forecast 2026: Will it Crash or Recover?

Sales on the Upswing, But Don’t Expect a Frenzy

According to C.A.R., we’re looking at an increase of about 2 percent in existing, single-family home sales in 2026. This means an estimated 274,400 units could change hands. This might not sound like headline-grabbing news, especially when you compare it to the booming sales numbers of a few years ago. However, it’s a welcome step up from the projected 269,000 sales for 2025, which itself is a slight dip from the 269,200 homes sold in 2024.

Think of it like this: the market has been catching its breath. After a period of intense activity, it’s natural for things to calm down a bit. This projected increase in sales in 2026 signifies a gradual return to normalcy, rather than a mad dash. For buyers who have been priced out or overwhelmed by competition, this could mean more options and a slightly less frantic search.

A New Price Record, But At a Slower Pace

Here’s a fact that will likely grab attention: California’s median home price is forecast to hit a new projected record of $905,000 in 2026. This represents a 3.6 percent increase from the projected $873,900 in 2025. It’s important to remember that this follows a more modest 1 percent rise in 2025 from the $865,400 median price in 2024.

Now, I know what some of you might be thinking: “More expensive? Great!” But it’s crucial to dig a little deeper. This 3.6 percent growth is significantly slower than the double-digit increases we’ve witnessed in some prior years. This is a key indicator that the market is moving away from rapid appreciation and towards a more sustainable growth pattern. As C.A.R. President Heather Ozur mentioned, “Home prices in California are expected to rise in 2026, but the growth pace will remain mild when compared to rates we’ve seen in past years.” This is a message of moderation, not runaway inflation.

Improved Affordability: A Breath of Fresh Air

One of the most encouraging pieces of the 2026 forecast is the projected increase in housing affordability. We’re looking at the Housing Affordability Index inching up to 18 percent in 2026, from a projected 17 percent in 2025, and 16 percent in 2024.

What does this mean for the average Californian? It means a slightly larger percentage of households will be able to afford to buy a median-priced home. This improvement is largely driven by a projected decrease in mortgage interest rates. C.A.R. forecasts the average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate to dip to 6.0 percent in 2026, down from 6.6 percent in 2025. While these rates are still higher than the pre-pandemic era, they represent a significant improvement from recent years and are well below the long-term average of nearly 8 percent. Lower interest rates, combined with a slight uptick in inventory, creates a more favorable environment for buyers.

Economic Undercurrents: What’s Driving the Forecast?

It’s vital to understand the broader economic forces that are shaping this housing forecast. C.A.R. projects a slight slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to 1 percent in 2026, following a projected 1.3 percent in 2025. California’s nonfarm job growth is also expected to be modest at 0.3 percent in 2026, contributing to a projected unemployment rate of 5.8 percent.

This might sound a bit concerning, but in the context of the housing market, it can play a balancing role. A strong, rapidly growing economy can fuel rapid home price appreciation. A more measured economic pace, on the other hand, helps to temper extreme price swings and contribute to the stability we’re forecasting.

We also anticipate inflation to average around 3.0 percent in 2026, a slight increase from the projected 2.8 percent in 2025. While higher inflation can erode purchasing power, the projected drop in mortgage rates is expected to offset some of this impact on housing affordability.

Inventory: A Gradual Improvement

A key factor influencing both sales and prices is the availability of homes for sale. The 2026 forecast suggests that housing supply will continue to improve, potentially reaching near pre-pandemic levels. Active listings are expected to be up by nearly 10 percent. This is excellent news for buyers who have been frustrated by the lack of choices.

When there are more homes on the market, sellers have to be more competitive, and buyers have more leverage. This gradual increase in inventory is crucial for sustaining a healthy market. As Jordan Levine, C.A.R.’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, pointed out, “Housing sentiment will see some improvement in 2026” as economic uncertainty clears and mortgage rates decline.

Challenges on the Horizon

While the forecast paints a picture of cautious optimism, it’s not without its potential hurdles. Levine also highlighted ongoing challenges such as “mounting headwinds such as the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners, the home insurance crisis, and a potential stock market bubble.”

These are important considerations. The home insurance crisis, in particular, continues to be a significant concern for many homeowners and can impact buying decisions. Trade tensions and stock market volatility can create broader economic uncertainties that could influence consumer confidence and, consequently, the housing market.

My Take: A Market for Savvy Buyers and Patient Sellers

From my perspective, the 2026 California housing market forecast points to a period of balanced conditions. For buyers, this means opportunities. The slight increase in affordability, coupled with a more stable price appreciation and improving inventory, makes it a more approachable market than in recent years. It’s a time to be strategic, do your research, and potentially negotiate from a stronger position.

For sellers, it’s important to have realistic expectations. While prices are projected to rise and sales are expected to increase, the days of wildly inflated offers might be behind us for now. A well-priced, well-presented home will still attract strong interest, but patience and a clear understanding of current market values will be essential.

The key takeaway for me is that the California housing market is evolving. It’s moving away from the extreme volatility of the past and towards a more sustainable, predictable future. It’s less about getting lucky and more about making smart, informed decisions.

2026 California Housing Forecast Summary

Metric 2024 2025 (Projected) 2026 (Forecast) % Change (2025-2026)
SFH Resales (000s) 269.2 269 274.4 2.00%
Median Price ($000s) $865.40 $873.90 $905.00 3.60%
Housing Affordability Index* 16% 17% 18% N/A
30-Yr FRM 6.70% 6.60% 6.00% ↓

*Note: Housing Affordability Index is the percentage of households that can afford to purchase a median-priced home.

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Your Keys To Real Estate – Falling Into the Next Real Estate Market

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There’s a change in the air, and it’s not just the crisp fall temperatures. Naperville’s real estate market is beginning to shift. While conditions remain favorable, there are early signs that the frenzy of the past few years is easing into a more balanced pace.

Inventory and Activity

Naperville continues to face a historically tight supply of homes, with only 1.4 months’ supply of inventory (MSI) available. The most active segment this August was the $601,000-$650,000 price range, where 29 homes went under contract.

Overall activity, however, is slightly softer. In August 2025, 183 homes closed, compared to 190 closings in August 2024, a 3.7% decrease. Year to date, closings are tracking 1.8% behind last year’s pace.

Prices Are Holding Steady

Even as sales cool, prices remain resilient. The average closed price across attached and detached homes in August was $646,728, up modestly from $634,123 in August 2024, a 2% year-over-year increase.

Similarly, the average price per square foot rose to $266 compared to $256 last year (+3.7%). These numbers show that while buyer demand is tempering, Naperville’s home values are still appreciating.

Signs of Balance

Buyers are gaining a bit of breathing room:

  • Days on Market climbed from 11 days last August to 19 days this year.
  • The list-to-sale price ratio slipped to 98.2%, down from 99.9%, which means buyers are finally able to negotiate instead of paying nearly every dollar of asking price.
  • Active listings ticked up slightly to 259 homes for sale this August, compared to 250 last year.

We’re also beginning to see home to sell and home to close contingencies reappear. This tells us some buyers “want” to move rather than “need” to, another marker of a healthier, more balanced market.

The Takeaway

As we head into fall, Naperville’s market is still strong, but no longer overheated. For sellers, this shift highlights the importance of thoughtful pricing and strategy. For buyers, it opens opportunities to negotiate and move with a bit more confidence.

Real estate is always hyper-local. Partnering with a trusted advisor ensures that whether you’re buying or selling, you’ll have the insight and strategy you need to reach the closing table successfully.

Happy selling, and welcome to the next chapter of Naperville real estate!

The Potential of the Israeli Real Estate Market

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The Potential of the Israeli Real Estate Market | The Jerusalem Post

Even conservative forecasts predict continued strength in the Israeli housing market

Young couple visiting a potential new home property with professional real estate agent
Young couple visiting a potential new home property with professional real estate agent
(photo credit: Gorodenkoff. Via Shutterstock)



FTC: Zillow Paid Redfin $100M to Dominate Online Rental Listings

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Wednesday, October 01, 2025

GoLocalProv Business Team

 

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IMAGE: FTC

The Federal Trade Commission on Tuesday sued Zillow and Redfin over an unlawful agreement that eliminates Redfin as a competitor in the market for placing advertising of rental housing on internet listing services (ILSs)—the websites that millions of Americans use to find their next rental home.

 

Zillow Group, Inc., and Zillow, Inc. (Zillow) and Redfin Corporation operate two of the nation’s largest rental ILS networks by traffic and revenue, including sites such as Zillow Rentals, Rent.com, and ApartmentGuide.com. The complaint alleges that in February 2025, Zillow and Redfin entered into an illegal agreement to dismantle Redfin as a competitor in the ILS advertising market for multifamily rental properties.

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In exchange for a $100 million payment and other compensation from Zillow, the complaint alleges, Redfin agreed:

To end its contracts with advertising customers and help Zillow take over that business,
To stop competing in the advertising market for multifamily properties for up to nine years, and
To serve merely as an exclusive syndicator of Zillow listings, making Redfin sites effectively a copy of the listings that appear on Zillow’s sites.

 

According to the FTC, Zillow and Redfin framed their agreement as a “partnership,” but in reality the arrangement is an end run around competition that insulates Zillow from competing head-to-head on the merits with Redfin, the complaint states. In connection with the agreement, Redfin fired hundreds of employees, then helped Zillow to hire its pick of those terminated workers.

“Paying off a competitor to stop competing against you is a violation of federal antitrust laws,” said Daniel Guarnera, Director of the FTC’s Bureau of Competition. “Zillow paid millions of dollars to eliminate Redfin as an independent competitor in an already concentrated advertising market—one that’s critical for renters, property managers, and the health of the overall U.S. housing market. The FTC will do our part to ensure that Americans who are looking for safe, affordable rentals receive all the benefits of robust competition between internet listing services like Zillow and Redfin.”

The FTC alleges that this agreement destroys competition for multifamily rental properties advertising on ILSs, harming both property managers seeking to advertise properties for rent and renters searching for a home. The agreement also constitutes an unlawful acquisition in violation of Section 7 of the Clayton Act, the complaint alleges.

 

The FTC alleges that the unlawful agreement will:

Likely lead to higher prices and worse terms for multifamily unit advertising; and
Reduce incentives for Zillow and Redfin to compete for renters, including through investment in attracting visitors and innovation to improve user experience when searching on an ILS for a rental property.

The complaint seeks to stop Zillow and Redfin from continuing their unlawful agreement and contemplates a potential divestiture of assets or the reconstruction of businesses to restore competition.

Throughout this investigation, the FTC worked in close collaboration with the offices of several state attorneys general. The Commission looks forward to ongoing cooperation with the states in this matter.

The Commission vote to authorize staff to file a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia was 3-0. 

 

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Real estate rebound faces new risk as shutdown looms

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An uptick in home sales has been welcome news for realtors and homeowners, but there is concern that a government shutdown could once again slow things down.

After disruptions that led to a below-average spring market, a late-summer uptick in home sales has been welcome news for realtors and homeowners. But there is concern that a government shutdown could once again slow things down.

Despite all this, and interest rates hovering near 6%, Burr said that coming out of the summer, people have begun to buy and sell homes. But he’s worried the shutdown could make this recovery short-lived.

“The main thing is that the shutdown is going to affect buyer confidence in the future,” said Corey Burr, senior vice president at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty.

Burr said the real estate market in the region is heavily influenced by what happens on Capitol Hill and changes in federal employment.

“Our spring market was interrupted by Liberation Day in early April, and what is typically the hottest time of our market, year in and year out, became dead for about a six-week period,” Burr said.

“Liberation Day” is a phrase President Donald Trump has used to describe April 2, the day a set of import tariffs was rolled out.

Buyer confidence also took a hit from the DOGE cuts, which Burr said had a “serious psychological effect” on buyers.

“It really just put our market into a frozen mode. Buyers got very nervous,” he said.

Burr pointed to Silver Spring, Maryland, as a bellwether for the region. He said the area has seen a longer time on the market for moderately-priced homes, which he believes is partly due to federal layoffs.

He also expressed concern about the possibility of additional layoffs, noting that federal agencies have been instructed to prepare for staff reductions as part of the shutdown response.

“The specter of even more layoffs is going to affect the region adversely,” Burr said.

He said what’s needed now is what he calls a “Goldilocks economy,” with inflation down to 2%, moderate job growth, and mortgage rates in the mid-5% range. That, he said, would give the Federal Reserve the flexibility to lower interest rates further.

“If we can achieve a Goldilocks economy, I think that the rate on the 30-year fixed is going to come down more into the mid-fives, and that has proven to be a number where existing homeowners are willing to trade in their low interest rate that they’ve had for the last several years in order to right-size their housing to where they are in their lives,” Burr said.

But for now, Burr said the full impact of the shutdown and the end of government payments for federal employees affected by the DOGE cuts remains to be seen.

“It would be very hard to take if this recent surge in activity gets interrupted by a lengthy shutdown by the government,” Burr said.

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Feds accuse Zillow of paying rival Redfin $100 million to “stop competing”

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Federal regulators are accusing online real estate firm Zillow of paying rival Redfin $100 million to discourage competition in home rental advertising, harming both renters and property managers.

In a lawsuit filed Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, the Federal Trade Commission alleged the companies struck an “unlawful agreement that eliminates Redfin as a competitor” in the market for placing home rental ads on so-called internet listing services, which the agency notes are widely used by consumers. 

Zillow and Redfin, which both operate large real estate listing networks, in February agreed that Redfin would stop competing in the ad market for multifamily properties for nine years and help transition its customers to Zillow, the FTC alleged. 

“Paying off a competitor to stop competing against you is a violation of federal antitrust laws,” Daniel Guarnera, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Competition, said in a statement. “Zillow paid millions of dollars to eliminate Redfin as an independent competitor in an already concentrated advertising market — one that’s critical for renters, property managers and the health of the overall U.S. housing market.”

In a statement to CBS news, a Zillow spokesperson said the company’s listing agreement with Redfin “benefits both renters and property managers and has expanded renters’ access to multifamily listings across multiple platforms.” 

“It is pro-competitive and pro-consumer by connecting property managers to more high-intent renters so they can fill their vacancies and more renters can get home,” the spokesperson added. 

A spokesperson for Redfin said the company “strongly disagrees” with the government’s allegations. “Our partnership with Zillow has given Redfin.com visitors access to more rental listings and our advertising customers access to more renters,” the spokesperson said in a statement. 

Mary Cunningham

Mary Cunningham is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. Before joining the business and finance vertical, she worked at “60 Minutes,” CBSNews.com and CBS News 24/7 as part of the CBS News Associate Program.

Bank of America Flags Rising Housing Market Uncertainty in 2025

Bank of America Flags Rising Housing Market Uncertainty in 2025

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Is 2025 the year to buy, sell, or hold tight in the housing market? It’s the question on everyone’s mind. Right now, the housing market 2025 is marked by a significant amount of uncertainty. A Bank of America report indicates that 60% of homeowners and prospective buyers are unsure about whether it’s a good time to buy, a three-year high in hesitancy. But amidst this confusion, there’s a glimmer of optimism, particularly among prospective buyers.

Bank of America Flags Rising Housing Market Uncertainty in 2025

What’s behind this mixed bag of feelings? Let’s dive into the key factors shaping the market and what you need to know to make informed decisions.

Why Are People So Confused?

The current housing market feels a bit like navigating a maze in the dark. Several factors are contributing to the general sense of uncertainty:

  • Interest Rate Volatility: Interest rates have been on a rollercoaster, impacting affordability and making it difficult to predict future mortgage costs.
  • Home Price Fluctuations: While some areas have seen prices stabilize or even dip slightly, others remain stubbornly high. This inconsistency makes it challenging to determine a fair price.
  • Economic Concerns: Lingering questions about inflation and potential economic slowdowns cast a shadow over the market, making people cautious about making large financial commitments.
  • Severe Weather and Natural Disasters: Concerns about the impact of severe weather and natural disasters has become top-of-mind for many homeowners and prospective buyers around the country.

It’s no wonder people are hesitant! Personally, I’ve felt the same way. Even as someone who follows the market closely, it’s tough to make confident predictions when things are so unpredictable. The average person just looking to buy a house may have an even tougher time breaking through these clouds of uncertainty.

The Buyer’s Perspective: Cautious Optimism and Compromises

Despite the uncertainty, there’s a vein of hope running through the prospective homebuyer population. The Bank of America report points out that 52% feel the market is better than it was a year ago. This optimism stems from the expectation that prices and interest rates will eventually fall.

  • Waiting Game: A whopping 75% of prospective buyers are playing the waiting game, anticipating more favorable conditions before jumping in.
  • Gen Z’s Innovative Strategies: Younger generations, in particular, are finding creative ways to overcome financial hurdles:
    • Extra Jobs: 30% of Gen Z homeowners took on an extra job to cover their down payment.
    • Co-Buying with Siblings: 22% of Gen Z homeowners purchased with siblings, a trend that’s been on the rise.
    • Living at Home: 34% of Gen Z prospective buyers would consider living with family while saving to buy.
    • Family Loans: 21% of Gen Z plan to get a down payment loan from family, compared to 15% of the general population.

I think this shows a lot of resilience and determination. The dream of homeownership is clearly still alive and well, especially among younger folks, but they are getting super creative and trying to get there by any means possibly, even if has to be with roommates, living back with their parents, taking out multiple jobs, etc.

The Seller’s Dilemma: Navigating a Shifting Market

For homeowners considering selling, the market situation is equally complex. While demand remains relatively strong in some areas, sellers may need to adjust their expectations.

  • Realistic Pricing: Overpricing a home can lead to it sitting on the market for longer, potentially forcing price reductions later on. Consulting with a local real estate agent for an accurate market analysis is crucial.
  • Highlighting Key Features: With severe weather being top of mind for buyers, improvements that protect against severe weather, like storm shutters or reinforced roofs, can be major selling points.

Interest Rates and the Fed: The Elephant in the Room

The Federal Reserve’s decisions regarding interest rates continue to be a major driving force in the housing market. Any signals about future rate cuts or pauses can significantly impact buyer sentiment and borrowing costs.

  • Inflation Data: Keep a close eye on inflation reports, as they heavily influence the Fed’s actions.
  • Fed Meetings: The Fed’s meetings and press conferences provide valuable insights into their economic outlook and policy intentions.
  • Mortgage Rate Trends: Follow daily mortgage rate trends to get a sense of borrowing costs and how they are reacting to market news.

As someone who’s followed markets for a while I predict that small, incremental rate hikes might be the case to reduce inflation in a smooth way rather than causing abrupt shifts that will affect the economic status of everyday people.

The Impact of Severe Weather on Homebuying

One of the more alarming trends is the growing concern of severe weather. According to Bank of America’s report, 62% of homeowners and prospective buyers are concerned about the impact of severe weather and natural disasters on homeownership.

  • Location, Location, Location: Around 73% feel it is important to buy in areas where there is a lower risk of these events occurring.
  • Changing Preferences: 38% have changed their preferred home purchasing location due to the risk of severe weather in the area.
  • Past Damage: Among current homeowners, nearly a quarter (23%) have personally experienced property damage or loss in the last 5 years due to severe weather events.
  • Preparation: 65% of current homeowners are taking measures to prepare their home for the risk of severe weather.

This is a significant shift in priorities. Buyers are now factoring in climate risk when deciding where to buy, and homeowners are investing in measures to protect their properties. It’s no longer just about finding the perfect house; it’s about finding a safe and resilient home.

The Future is Still Being Written:

It’s important to remember that the housing market 2025 is a moving target. There are several factors that could influence the market in the coming months:

  • Employment Growth: A strong job market can boost consumer confidence and increase demand for housing.
  • Housing Supply: Any increase in new construction could help to alleviate supply constraints and moderate price growth.
  • Government Policies: Government policies, such as tax credits or down payment assistance programs, can impact homeownership affordability.

Key Takeaways for Navigating the Housing Market in 2025:

  • Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date on market trends, economic indicators, and interest rate developments.
  • Seek Professional Advice: Consult with a trusted real estate agent, mortgage lender, and financial advisor.
  • Be Patient and Flexible: Be prepared to adjust your expectations and timelines as the market evolves.
  • Consider Your Personal Finances: Make sure you’re financially prepared for the responsibilities of homeownership.
  • Factor in Climate Risk: Assess the potential impact of severe weather on your property and location.

The housing market is still a tricky thing to maneuver. Being conscious of all external factors and relying on the correct insights is key to navigating this market to your own benefit.

Plan Ahead with These Housing Market Insights

The housing market is shifting—some regions are cooling while others remain resilient. Stay ahead of national trends by focusing on stable investment areas with long-term growth potential.

Norada helps investors like you discover turnkey real estate opportunities in cities forecasted for strong performance in both 2025 and 2026.

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Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

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