Where home prices are headed in 2023—this map shows CoreLogic’s

When a buttoned-up Fed economist says the U.S. housing market has entered into a “difficult [housing] correction”, it’d be wise to believe them. When it comes from the lips of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it’s more of a warning.

Powell is right: Not only does housing activity continue to plummet, but U.S. home prices are falling for the first-time since 2012.

Unlike the 2000s housing correction, which saw U.S. home prices fall 27% between 2006 and 2012, this ongoing housing correction isn’t underpinned by bad loans nor by a supply glut. Instead, this correction is driven by what Fortune calls “pressurized affordability.” The Pandemic Housing Boom‘s 43% run-up in U.S. home prices combined with spiking mortgage rates has simply pushed affordability beyond what many borrowers can stomach.

The only levers available to depressurize affordability are for either mortgage rates or home prices to fall. In recent months, we’ve seen the latter.

“Home prices continue to face significant pressure in light of surging costs of borrowing,” Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic, tells Fortune. “[The] considerable pullback in home buyer demand will continue to weigh home prices down, bringing them closer in line with local incomes.”

Nationally, home prices are down 1.3% from their 2022 peak. At least that’s according to the lagged Case-Shiller reading through August. However, markets like Austin and Reno are down 10.2% and 8.4%, respectively, while markets like Des Moines and Baltimore remain at their all-time highs. (Here’s the shift in the nation’s 400 biggest markets.)

But what’s coming next?

To better understand where regional home prices might go in 2023, Fortune reached out to CoreLogic to see if the firm would provide us with its updated November assessment of the nation’s largest regional housing markets. To determine the likelihood of regional home prices dropping, CoreLogic assessed factors like income growth projections, unemployment forecasts, consumer confidence, debt-to-income ratios, affordability, mortgage rates, and inventory levels. Then CoreLogic put regional housing markets into one of five categories, grouped by the likelihood that home prices in that particular market will fall between September 2022 and September 2023. Here are the groupings the real estate research firm used for the November analysis:

  • Very high: Over 70% chance of a price dip
  • High: 50%-70% chance
  • Medium: 40%-50% chance
  • Low: 20%-40% chance
  • Very low: 0%-20% chance

Of the 392 regional housing markets that CoreLogic measured, zero markets currently have “very low” odds of falling home prices over the coming 12 months. Another 6 housing markets are in the “low” group and 33 markets are in the “medium” group. Meanwhile, CoreLogic put 65 markets in the “high” camp and 289 markets in the “very high” odds camp.

The trajectory is clear: The list of U.S. regional housing markets barreling towards a negative year-over-year home price reading is getting bigger. To see the shift, just compare CoreLogic’s November 2022 assessment (see chart above) to its May 2022 assessment (see chart below).

The November assessment finds 354 markets have a greater than 50% chance of notching a negative year-over-year reading (i.e. markets in either the “high” or “very high” risk groups) over the next 12 months. That’s up from 335 markets in October that had a greater than 50% chance of falling home prices. In August, there were 125 markets at risk. In July, there were 98 markets at risk. In June, 45 markets were at risk. And in May, just 26 markets (see chart above) fell into those “high” or “very high” risk camps.

What’s going on? The home price correction continues to spread.

It didn’t take long for Bay Area techies in 2020 to realize their newfound remote freedoms, coupled with historically low mortgage rates, made the pandemic the perfect time to buy in “Zoomtowns” like Boise.

At first, it didn’t matter that the Pandemic Housing Boom had made Boise home prices significantly detached from local incomes. Well, that was until spiking mortgage rates disrupted the math of selling one’s home in Santa Clara and moving to Boise. Once that migration slowed, Boise quickly entered into a historically sharp correction.

The correction is so sharp that Boise—which saw its year-over-year rate peak at 47% between July 2020 and July 2021—has already gone negative in 2022 on a year-over-year basis. Indeed, Boise home prices are down 7.1% since its 2022 peak, and down 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.

To date, only 1% of the nation’s 392 biggest housing markets are negative on a year-over-year basis. That said, don’t ignore Boise. The big question: are markets like Boise only correcting because their fundamentals got so out-of-whack? Or are markets like Boise just correcting first because their fundamentals got so out-of-whack? The analysis provided by CoreLogic—which finds 354 markets are at “high” or “very high” risk of posting a negative year-over-year reading in September 2023—suggests that it could be the latter.

Want to stay updated on the housing correction? Follow me on Twitter at @NewsLambert.

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What's happening with the housing market? Mortgage rates, home prices and affordability

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Eagle County Real Estate Market Report: While the overall market slows, positive signs emerging

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Can You Take Your House Off the Market?

Having second thoughts about selling your home isn’t unusual. In fact, 29 percent of sellers temporarily take their home off the market, according to the Zillow Group Consumer Housing Trends Report 2018. And that number is even higher among millennial sellers at 45 percent.

Can you take your house off the market?

Yes, as the owner of the home, you can take your house off the market at any time. If you’re selling for sale by owner (FSBO), you can simply remove your listing from everywhere you’re advertising, but you won’t recoup any costs related to marketing.

If you’re selling with an agent, you will be subject to the terms of your contract. Penalties, including an early termination fee, may apply, especially if you request a cancellation of your agent’s contract and then turn around and relist with another agent. But if you’re delisting because you got cold feet, most agents will understand. Whether they charge you any penalties will likely depend how much time and money the agent has already put into your listing.  

Reasons to take your house off the market

There are many reasons sellers delist a home after it’s already on the market. Here are a few of the most common reasons.

Financial circumstances

When your finances change unexpectedly, because of a job layoff, medical emergency or otherwise, you may decide it’s not the best time to buy a new home — which usually means it’s not a great time to sell your current home. Higher interest rates, a brief job history and the price tag of a new home (and higher monthly payment) are all factors that cause people to take their homes off the market for financial reasons.

Stale listing

If your home has been sitting on the market for too long, taking it off the market for a while can be a good strategy. It could help you start fresh with a new pool of buyers. A stale listing can be a red flag for buyers, who might assume there’s something wrong with the property, even if there isn’t.

If you’re selling in a buyers market (where homes take longer to sell because there are more listings than there are buyers) and you either are not receiving any offers or aren’t receiving offers that are worth selling for, you might consider taking your home off the market for a longer period of time, until market conditions shift in your favor.

Remodeling

If your home isn’t selling, it might be worth taking it off the market to do some remodeling that will help attract more buyers. Keep in mind that since you’re still planning to sell, you should focus on renovation projects that would offer you a strong return on investment. Your ROI ultimately depends on the cost of improvements made, your home’s current value (pre-renovation) and what a buyer is willing to pay once it’s improved.

Change of heart

You put a lot of time, effort and love into your home, and for many homeowners, it’s filled with memories. Some sellers don’t realize the emotional attachment they have to their home until buyers come through the door.

Are there fees for taking your house off the market?

Once you’ve decided you definitely want to cancel your for-sale listing, you’ll need to check your listing agreement (if you’re working with an agent) to determine the possible financial repercussions.

Fees for taking your house off the market when selling privately

If you aren’t using an agent to sell your house, you have more flexibility in deciding if and when to take it off the market. You are free to remove your listing from sites like Zillow at any time, assuming you don’t yet have a buyer. If you are already under contract with a buyer, you’ll need to go through the process of canceling your contract if you’re having second thoughts, and that can be a challenge.

Fees for taking your house off the market when listing with an agent

Many contracts between the home seller and real estate agent include a listing agreement cancellation clause to protect the agent from losing the time and money they’ve put into your listing so far.

Full commission: If your agent did everything in their power to sell your home and brought you strong offers but you refused to accept them, the agent could pursue compensation for their full commission.

Marketing fees: If your agent did everything they could to sell your home but you didn’t get any offers and decide to cancel, you may have to reimburse them for marketing expenses.

Do all agents charge a fee to cancel a listing agreement?

Most reputable agents will not charge a fee for taking your house off the market. If they do, it’s usually because of at least one of these issues:

  • The seller was blatantly taking advantage of their services — for example, if a seller received a strong offer, accepted it, then canceled to avoid paying their commission.
  • The seller didn’t give the home a chance to sell.
  • The seller already expressed plans to relist with another agent, even though the first agent was satisfying the terms of their contract.

It’s important to note that most reputable agents are reasonable when it comes to cancellations. If you’ve had a good working relationship, they will likely be accommodating if you have a change of heart or if your financial circumstances shift. Let your agent know as soon as possible that you’ve decided to take the home off the market so they don’t spend any more time and money marketing on your behalf.

When should you take your house off the market?

If you’re thinking of delisting not because of personal circumstances but because you’re not happy with how the listing is performing, understand that timing is everything. Deciding what to do next all depends on pricing, market conditions and seasonality.

After 30 days with no offers

If you’re in a strong sellers market and your home hasn’t seen a single offer in 30 days, the listing price is usually to blame. That’s why finding the right price for your home from the start is so important. If you have to do a price reduction, your home might sit on the market longer and ultimately sell for less.

Keep in mind, though, that every market is different. If you’re selling in a buyers market or if you’re selling a luxury home that naturally has a smaller pool of potential buyers because of the price point, it can take longer than a month to get a good offer.

During slow season

If your home has been on the market for months and winter is approaching, you might be asking yourself, “Should I take my house off the market in winter?” It might be worth delisting for those slow winter months and trying again in the spring.

According to Zillow research, the first half of May is the best time of the year to list in the U.S. Listing during the two-week period between May 1 and May 15 helps homes sell six days faster and for $1,600 more, on average — a 0.7 percent bump in price. The price difference varies by market, of course. On the low end, homes in Atlanta that sell during the optimal window sell for $1,300 more. On the high side, homes in San Francisco see a $10,000 bump. Of course, some of that variability is due to the difference in home prices across markets. 

How to take your house off the market

The actual act of taking your house off the market, whether it’s listed on the MLS or as a FSBO on Zillow and Trulia, is fairly simple and takes just a few minutes. Here are the steps.

Talk to your agent

Your agent has full power to cancel the listing on the MLS quickly and easily, but you need to talk it over with them first and agree on any financial penalties.

If you are delisting because your home isn’t selling, take the time to listen to your agent’s feedback. They can offer insights into why they think it didn’t sell, whether it’s because of timing, because it was priced too high or because it needs repairs.

Remove from Zillow and Trulia

For FSBO sellers with homes displayed on Zillow and Trulia, it’s easy to remove your listing:

  1. Log in to your Zillow profile.
  2. Go to your listing and select Owner view.
  3. Click More and navigate to Cancel listing.
  4. Mark No longer for sale.
  5. Click Update status.

Remove any other online listings

Take inventory of any other places you posted your listing online — like on social media channels, in community groups and on Craigslist. Remove these posts quickly to avoid confusion among buyers.

Can you sell your home off-market?

You don’t have to have your home formally listed on the MLS or on Zillow or Trulia to enter into a contract with a buyer — but it will be much harder to attract an interested buyer, unless you already have one lined up.

Luxury living with room to roam awaits at new community

Want to be semi-close to Houston’s hustle and bustle yet still enjoy your space? Just head north of the Loop to Hockley, where the new luxury gated community of Stallion Lakes is starting to take shape.

Lots are now being sold — in sizes ranging from 1.5-3.5 acres — that future residents can base their new dream home on.

You’ll have your choice of five builders — Jeff Paul Homes, Kickerillo Companies, Matt Powers Custom Homes, Morning Star Builders, and William David Homes — to create your new custom home, in a community which will feature private concrete streets, natural gas, and fiber optic cable.

Residents will also enjoy a low tax rate and the peace of mind that comes from knowing that none of the lots sit within a flood plain.

“Once again, we are creating a project of extraordinary design and quality,” remarks Kelli Kickerillo, CEO of Kickerillo Companies, which is overseeing the development. “Stallion Lakes sits on more than 400 acres of rolling land with five lakes and a nature preserve surrounded by landscaped walk/bike trails. This land truly takes your breath away. We are thrilled to be able to bring together Houston’s best builders to deliver luxury living in the heart of Hockley.”

Founded in 1957, Kickerillo Companies has been responsible for the construction of over 16,400 homes in more than 40 prestigious Greater Houston neighborhoods, including Lakes of Parkway, Kelliwood, Twin Lakes, and Vintage Lakes.

The firm has joined forces with local businessman Bill Bean, who originally purchased the land with his wife, Karen, approximately 12 years ago from iconic A. J. Foyt.

The Kingshill Martini Group will be the exclusive listing agent for Stallion Lakes lots, and co-founder Diane Kingshill agrees about the beauty and convenience of the area.

“Located just 40 miles from downtown Houston, Stallion Lakes is one of the closest areas to the city that offers this stunning, rolling terrain,” she explains. “I own a home in Hockley and can personally endorse the quality of life here. Getting back and forth to Houston is easy, even on a daily basis. Minutes away, Fairfield Town Center offers a large variety of shops and restaurants, and The Clubs at Houston Oaks is only two miles down the road, adding to the community’s tremendous appeal.”

Lot prices range between $300,000 and $690,000. Those interested in the custom builds should note that the development requires at least 4,500 square feet for one-story plans and at least 5,000 square feet for two-story homes.

“We are excited about the initial response to Stallion Lakes,” says Kickerillo Companies president Jim Miller. “Stallion Lakes is on track to be a great success because it is the perfect destination community for families looking to escape the city while still being within arm’s reach.”

Diane Kingshill and Ashton Martini lead The Kingshill & Martini Group at Martha Turner Sotheby’s International Realty, a dynamic partnership responsible for more than $1 billion in combined sales throughout the Greater Houston area. This award-winning duo is deeply involved in both local real estate and the Houston community, with multiple industry accolades and substantial nonprofit fundraising accomplishments to their credit.

Stallion Lakes HockleyStallion Lakes HockleyStallion Lakes HockleyStallion Lakes HockleyStallion Lakes Hockley

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Saltwater breezes on that massive porch: Historical Galveston mansion-turned-B&B on

GALVESTON, Texas – Fully furnished and located on three lots, the historical 1899 Schaefer Haus Mansion — a currently functioning bed and breakfast in Galveston — is for sale for $1,200,000.

The six-bedroom, six full bathroom and one half bathroom home is on a massive, three-lot space in the “heart of Galveston’s East End Historic District,” according to the full listing here.

Take a look through the home and see its “turnkey” condition in the photos below. We’re drooling over here over some of the antiques on display that would come with the estate that survived the great flood of 1900.

“Countless original details remain throughout the property including five hand carved mantles, stick and ball fretwork, and exquisite trim work,” the listing reads. “The upper floors have six units available to rent, each with private, attached baths. The large public spaces, porches, and grounds are enjoyed by the guests. There is over 2,000 square feet of storage below the main level, as well as an oversized garage. Whether this property’s future continues as a successful B&B, perhaps a law office, or even back to the grandeur of a single family home, it will certainly provide an excellent future for its next steward.”

Take a look inside:

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What do you think of this property? Let us know in the comments.

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